PENNSYLVANIA POKER – AT 7:59 P.M. ET:  There is a raft of new polls out today, published since our morning posts, and for the most part they confirm the trends we've seen.  But one, unfortunately, does not.

Pennsylvania has looked for months like an almost sure thing for the GOP in the race for the Senate between Republican Pat Toomey and Democrat Joe Sestak.  In a strongly Democratic state, Toomey has led polls by as much as ten points.  But a PPP poll out today has Sestak ahead be one.

Pennsylvania is known for close Senate races, and just about everyone expected the gap in the Toomey-Sestak race to narrow, but this is a little too close for comfort.  Toomey is a superb Republican candidate – thoughtfully conservative, knowledgeable and solid.  Congressman Joe Sestak is one of those Democrats I'd least like to see in the U.S. Senate.  He is a former Navy vice admiral, which ordinarily would make me supportive, but his separation from the Navy has been clouded.  He himself says he left voluntarily to take care of a sick daughter – you wonder when they start dragging in the kids – but too many others have told other stories of his being eased out for me to rest assured.  As a congressman, Sestak always seemed a bit too slick, and always too willing to wave his Navy uniform before the voters.

Steve Hayes, superlative young journalist and writer for the Weekly Standard, said on Fox News earlier this evening that there were problems in the PPP poll, and that it tilted toward the Democratic side.  I certainly hope so.  I'd hate to lose this one. 

We'll be watching Pennsylvania very closely.  It reports early in the evening on election day, and I don't want to see any smirks on the part of those "neutral" network anchors.

October 19, 2010